{
  "schema_version": "1.0",
  "build_content_version": "NP176-I27-candidate",
  "title": "Три сценарных траектории systemwide EROI мировой электроэнергетики",
  "source": {
    "citation": "Sahin et al. Systemwide energy return on investment in a sustainable transition towards net zero power systems. Nature Communications 15, 208 (2024).",
    "doi": "https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-44232-9",
    "article_url": "https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-023-44232-9",
    "license": "CC BY 4.0",
    "figure": "Figure 2a-b",
    "article_file": {
      "path": "source_cache/Sahin_2024_systemwide_EROI.pdf",
      "bytes": 1429460,
      "sha256": "6cb8c92265af3550140579bf05a630cd638132f97cc9c27bfb7cb198b906615d"
    },
    "supplement_file": {
      "path": "source_cache/Sahin_2024_systemwide_EROI_supplement.pdf",
      "bytes": 2013475,
      "sha256": "2701ced2c267db0e957d336f07ce125a207578bb86024a09ffe5009e462d14ca"
    },
    "figure_file": {
      "path": "source_cache/Sahin_2024_Figure2.png",
      "bytes": 259907,
      "sha256": "4e461931414fd7a79ffd81991bbe528db3b90838fdaa0dcc5073acfe4afcc44c"
    },
    "access_date": "2026-09-19"
  },
  "boundary": {
    "numerator": "net electricity delivered to end users, including transmission and distribution losses",
    "denominator": "systemwide energy invested under the LUT-EROI model boundary",
    "stage": "point of final electricity consumption (F)",
    "region": "world aggregate from nine major regions",
    "years_in_model": [
      2015,
      2050
    ],
    "time_step_years": 5,
    "not_equal_to": [
      "whole-world all-energy EROI",
      "I10 fossil-mix final EROI",
      "I10 useful-stage EROI",
      "probability of a scenario",
      "civilisation threshold"
    ],
    "electricity_share_of_world_final_consumption": {
      "value_percent": 21,
      "year": 2025,
      "status": "IEA 2025 statement, corroborated by Electricity 2026",
      "source": "https://www.iea.org/reports/world-energy-outlook-2025/executive-summary",
      "corroborating_source": "https://www.iea.org/reports/electricity-2026/demand"
    },
    "numerator_stage": "net electricity delivered to end users at final consumption point F after transmission and distribution losses",
    "denominator_stage": "systemwide energy investment converted to electricity quality under LUT-EROI",
    "cost_components_included": [
      "resource extraction and processing",
      "construction and decommissioning structure materials and consumables",
      "transport",
      "operational consumables",
      "storage technologies"
    ],
    "cost_components_excluded": [
      "recycling of materials and waste",
      "embodied energy of transmission and distribution network expansion",
      "socio-economic-political variation",
      "climate impacts and extreme events"
    ],
    "period": "2015-2050 model; 2025-2050 displayed",
    "territory": "world aggregate from nine major regions"
  },
  "extraction": {
    "status": "approximate figure digitisation, not an author-supplied numeric table",
    "display_precision": 0.1,
    "method": "Values read from publisher Figure 2a-b axes and rounded to one decimal; author data are available on request according to the paper.",
    "intermediate_year_policy": "piecewise linear interpolation between adjacent displayed five-year nodes; labelled in the UI",
    "inverse_policy": "enabled only as navigation within one selected rounded displayed pathway: solve all segments, merge flat ranges, retain isolated solutions, and disclose that an apparent plateau may be caused by 0.1 rounding; never infer whole-energy EROI, probability, or a civilisation threshold",
    "control_direction": "selected pathway plus year determines power-sector EROI; the inverse UI searches only the same selected displayed line and explicitly reports non-unique solutions",
    "interface_policy": "the linked page never writes to the separate whole-energy teaching scale and never supplies the service-state classifier inputs",
    "flat_segment_caveat": "Equal adjacent values after rounding to 0.1 do not establish that the author data were exactly constant between the two years."
  },
  "pathways": [
    {
      "id": "early",
      "label": "A · BPS-plus2035",
      "condition": "100% renewable power system targeted by 2035",
      "points": [
        [
          2025,
          23.7
        ],
        [
          2030,
          22
        ],
        [
          2035,
          17.3
        ],
        [
          2040,
          16.8
        ],
        [
          2045,
          16.7
        ],
        [
          2050,
          16.7
        ]
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "target",
      "label": "Б · BPS-WF",
      "condition": "100% renewable power system targeted by 2050; wind repowering constraint",
      "points": [
        [
          2025,
          24.5
        ],
        [
          2030,
          22.9
        ],
        [
          2035,
          21.7
        ],
        [
          2040,
          19.8
        ],
        [
          2045,
          18.9
        ],
        [
          2050,
          18.7
        ]
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "later",
      "label": "В · IEA-SDS",
      "condition": "approximately 90% reduction in power-sector CO2 emissions by 2050 relative to 2020; the paper does not define a net-zero year for this pathway",
      "points": [
        [
          2025,
          18.2
        ],
        [
          2030,
          18.7
        ],
        [
          2035,
          19.5
        ],
        [
          2040,
          20.4
        ],
        [
          2045,
          21.2
        ],
        [
          2050,
          21.3
        ]
      ]
    }
  ],
  "selection_note": "One representative pathway for an early 100% renewable target, a 2050 zero-CO2 target and an IEA-SDS pathway with an estimated 90% power-sector CO2 reduction by 2050. The paper models nine scenarios; selection is not a ranking.",
  "source_limitations": [
    "Recycling of materials and waste is not included due to insufficient specific data.",
    "Energy investments associated with transmission and distribution network expansion are not included.",
    "Socio-economic-political variation, climate impacts and extreme events are outside scope.",
    "Aggregated global results mask regional heterogeneity."
  ],
  "included_in_build": "NP176-FINAL-frozen"
}