{ "schema_version": "1.0", "build_content_version": "NP176-FINAL-frozen", "scope": "All substantive empirical, model, scenario, boundary and inference claims visible on the current public page; navigation labels and purely editorial aspirations are excluded.", "exclusions": [ "navigation labels", "section titles phrased as questions", "purely editorial aspirations without empirical content" ], "protocol": "scientific-method-protocol.json", "status_vocabulary": [ "PASS", "FAIL", "UNKNOWN", "NOT_APPLICABLE" ], "summary": { "total": 58, "PASS": 54, "NOT_APPLICABLE": 1, "UNKNOWN": 3, "total_claims": 58 }, "source_audit_findings": [ { "id": "F01", "severity": "HIGH", "status": "CORRECTED_I14", "finding": "Power-sector EROI was coupled to a whole-energy teaching scale.", "evidence": [ "D22", "D23", "M11" ] }, { "id": "F02", "severity": "HIGH", "status": "CORRECTED_I15", "finding": "The former blanket UNKNOWN for copper recycling energy omitted an explicit 15% relative industry-average value on IEA PDF page 138.", "evidence": [ "D24" ] }, { "id": "F03", "severity": "MEDIUM", "status": "OPEN_SOURCE_CONFLICT", "finding": "The same revised IEA PDF reports 27 Mt on page 83 and 28 Mt on page 11 for available copper scrap in 2050; both say 70% of demand.", "evidence": [ "D19" ] }, { "id": "F04", "severity": "HIGH", "status": "CORRECTED_I28", "finding": "A published annual whole-energy scenario dataset for 2020–2100 is now present; observed current values and full independent model reproduction remain absent.", "evidence": [ "D28", "forecast-model-card.json" ] }, { "id": "F05", "severity": "HIGH", "status": "PROCESS_CORRECTED", "finding": "The I12 DeepSeek review was too narrowly framed to test the subsystem-to-system substitution.", "evidence": [ "iteration14_status.md", "scientific-method-protocol.json" ] }, { "id": "F06", "severity": "HIGH", "status": "CORRECTED_I18", "finding": "Independent DeepSeek review rejected treating annual A_s/E_min,s as continuous capability, rejected zero requirement as 100 percent, and required the four rows to be labelled a partial demonstration basket.", "evidence": [ "i17_deepseek_review.txt", "service-demand-model.json", "scenario-rules.json" ] } ], "claims": [ { "id": "C-D01", "exact_claim": "Годовой конечная стадия EROI мирового ископаемого энергомикса", "claim_type": "published_data_or_method", "system_boundary": "мир (WRLD); [1971, 2020]", "numerator": "конечная энергия, доставленная потребителю", "denominator": "конечная энергия, вложенная в отрасль ископаемого топлива", "energy_stage": "final", "region": "мир (WRLD)", "period": [ 1971, 2020 ], "units": "безразмерное отношение", "aggregation_rule": "Широкая CSV-строка развёрнута в 50 годовых ячеек; округление до 0,001 только в HTML; без интерполяции и экстраполяции", "primary_source": { "record_id": "D01", "url": "https://www.nature.com/articles/s41560-024-01518-6", "version": "Nature Energy 2024; Figshare version 1", "locator": "Fig. 2; released dataset file 46240243; row Final (fuel+elec+heat) / All fossil fuels / Included", "source_sha256": "12241f109b0e1f540f591fbaec912961ea0b458365a029f7dae5396cfd10340d" }, "extraction_or_calculation": "Широкая CSV-строка развёрнута в 50 годовых ячеек; округление до 0,001 только в HTML; без интерполяции и экстраполяции", "falsifier": "The exact source row, source hash or recomputation does not reproduce the 1971–2020 final-stage values.", "alternatives": [ "Including capital energy would lower the reported upper-bound EROI.", "Different fossil-fuel aggregation or energy stage gives a different series." ], "uncertainty": "Published model estimate; capital energy excluded; indirect requirements outside 1995–2015 are extrapolated by the authors.", "status": "PASS", "status_scope": "Faithful representation within the stated boundary; not proof that a scenario will occur.", "evidence": [ "research-registry.json", "#ref-D01" ], "site_locations": [ "evidence.html#ref-D01" ] }, { "id": "C-D02", "exact_claim": "Годовой полезная стадия EROI мирового ископаемого энергомикса", "claim_type": "published_data_or_method", "system_boundary": "мир (WRLD); [1971, 2020]", "numerator": "полезная энергия после конечного устройства", "denominator": "конечная энергия, вложенная в отрасль ископаемого топлива", "energy_stage": "useful", "region": "мир (WRLD)", "period": [ 1971, 2020 ], "units": "безразмерное отношение", "aggregation_rule": "Широкая CSV-строка развёрнута в 50 годовых ячеек; округление до 0,001 только в HTML; без интерполяции и экстраполяции", "primary_source": { "record_id": "D02", "url": "https://www.nature.com/articles/s41560-024-01518-6", "version": "Nature Energy 2024; Figshare version 1", "locator": "Fig. 2; released dataset file 46240243; row Useful (fuel+elec+heat) / All fossil fuels / Included", "source_sha256": "12241f109b0e1f540f591fbaec912961ea0b458365a029f7dae5396cfd10340d" }, "extraction_or_calculation": "Широкая CSV-строка развёрнута в 50 годовых ячеек; округление до 0,001 только в HTML; без интерполяции и экстраполяции", "falsifier": "The exact source row, source hash or recomputation does not reproduce the 1971–2020 useful-stage values.", "alternatives": [ "Changes in final-to-useful efficiency can move useful EROI differently from final EROI.", "A different useful-energy allocation method can change the estimate." ], "uncertainty": "Published model estimate; useful-stage allocation and efficiency assumptions apply; capital energy excluded.", "status": "PASS", "status_scope": "Faithful representation within the stated boundary; not proof that a scenario will occur.", "evidence": [ "research-registry.json", "#ref-D02" ], "site_locations": [ "evidence.html#ref-D02" ] }, { "id": "C-D03", "exact_claim": "Сети: ориентир реализации COP28", "claim_type": "published_data_or_method", "system_boundary": "мир; 2030", "numerator": null, "denominator": null, "energy_stage": null, "region": "мир", "period": 2030, "units": "млн км новых или обновлённых сетей", "aggregation_rule": "Перенос ориентира; не фактический ввод", "primary_source": { "record_id": "D03", "url": "https://www.iea.org/reports/from-taking-stock-to-taking-action/executive-summary", "version": "2024", "locator": "Key benchmarks for energy system transitions aligned with the COP28 outcome", "source_sha256": null }, "extraction_or_calculation": "Перенос ориентира; не фактический ввод", "falsifier": "The cited IEA release does not state more than 25 million km of grids built or upgraded by 2030, or the site treats it as observed construction.", "alternatives": [ "A different source vintage or system boundary may produce a different value.", "The claim may fail outside its stated region, period or unit." ], "uncertainty": "Limited to the stated source, boundary and transformation: Перенос ориентира; не фактический ввод", "status": "PASS", "status_scope": "Faithful representation within the stated boundary; not proof that a scenario will occur.", "evidence": [ "research-registry.json", "#ref-D03" ], "site_locations": [ "evidence.html#ref-D03" ] }, { "id": "C-D04", "exact_claim": "Мощность накопителей: ориентир COP28", "claim_type": "published_data_or_method", "system_boundary": "мир; 2030", "numerator": null, "denominator": null, "energy_stage": null, "region": "мир", "period": 2030, "units": "ГВт", "aggregation_rule": "Мощность; не ГВт·ч и не длительность хранения", "primary_source": { "record_id": "D04", "url": "https://www.iea.org/reports/from-taking-stock-to-taking-action/executive-summary", "version": "2024", "locator": "Without grids and storage, the tripling of renewables will not succeed", "source_sha256": null }, "extraction_or_calculation": "Мощность; не ГВт·ч и не длительность хранения", "falsifier": "The cited IEA release does not state 1,500 GW of storage by 2030, or the site treats GW as stored energy or duration.", "alternatives": [ "A different source vintage or system boundary may produce a different value.", "The claim may fail outside its stated region, period or unit." ], "uncertainty": "Limited to the stated source, boundary and transformation: Мощность; не ГВт·ч и не длительность хранения", "status": "PASS", "status_scope": "Faithful representation within the stated boundary; not proof that a scenario will occur.", "evidence": [ "research-registry.json", "#ref-D04" ], "site_locations": [ "evidence.html#ref-D04" ] }, { "id": "C-D05", "exact_claim": "Сети для национальных целей", "claim_type": "published_data_or_method", "system_boundary": "мир; 2040", "numerator": null, "denominator": null, "energy_stage": null, "region": "мир", "period": 2040, "units": "млн км новых или обновлённых сетей", "aggregation_rule": "Не складывать с ориентиром 2030: разные публикации и горизонты", "primary_source": { "record_id": "D05", "url": "https://www.iea.org/reports/electricity-grids-and-secure-energy-transitions/executive-summary", "version": "2023", "locator": "Reaching national goals also means adding or refurbishing a total of over 80 million kilometres of grids by 2040", "source_sha256": null }, "extraction_or_calculation": "Не складывать с ориентиром 2030: разные публикации и горизонты", "falsifier": "The cited IEA 2023 release does not state over 80 million km added or refurbished by 2040.", "alternatives": [ "A different source vintage or system boundary may produce a different value.", "The claim may fail outside its stated region, period or unit." ], "uncertainty": "Limited to the stated source, boundary and transformation: Не складывать с ориентиром 2030: разные публикации и горизонты", "status": "PASS", "status_scope": "Faithful representation within the stated boundary; not proof that a scenario will occur.", "evidence": [ "research-registry.json", "#ref-D05" ], "site_locations": [ "evidence.html#ref-D05" ] }, { "id": "C-D06", "exact_claim": "Численность населения: ранняя округлённая сводка", "claim_type": "published_data_or_method", "system_boundary": "мир; [2024, 2030, 2050]", "numerator": null, "denominator": null, "energy_stage": null, "region": "мир", "period": [ 2024, 2030, 2050 ], "units": "млрд человек", "aggregation_rule": "Округлённая сводка сохранена для истории; не смешивать с точным извлечением D14", "primary_source": { "record_id": "D06", "url": "https://population.un.org/wpp/", "version": "2024", "locator": "WPP 2024 summary; exact regional cells are recorded in D14", "source_sha256": null }, "extraction_or_calculation": "Округлённая сводка сохранена для истории; не смешивать с точным извлечением D14", "falsifier": "The obsolete rounded series is used in a current calculation or presented as the I15 demographic source.", "alternatives": [ "A different source vintage or system boundary may produce a different value.", "The claim may fail outside its stated region, period or unit." ], "uncertainty": "Limited to the stated source, boundary and transformation: Округлённая сводка сохранена для истории; не смешивать с точным извлечением D14", "status": "NOT_APPLICABLE", "status_scope": "Historical record retained but excluded from current calculations.", "evidence": [ "research-registry.json", "#ref-D06" ], "site_locations": [ "#evidence-registry" ] }, { "id": "C-D07", "exact_claim": "Энергия реакции D+T", "claim_type": "published_data_or_method", "system_boundary": "не географическая величина; одна реакция", "numerator": null, "denominator": null, "energy_stage": null, "region": "не географическая величина", "period": "одна реакция", "units": "МэВ", "aggregation_rule": "Округление; не электрический выход всей установки", "primary_source": { "record_id": "D07", "url": "https://www.iter.org/node/20687/magic-cocktail-deuterium-and-tritium", "version": "страница ITER", "locator": "The magic cocktail of deuterium and tritium", "source_sha256": null }, "extraction_or_calculation": "Округление; не электрический выход всей установки", "falsifier": "The D–T reaction energy calculated from accepted masses or the cited ITER source is materially different from 17.6 MeV.", "alternatives": [ "A different source vintage or system boundary may produce a different value.", "The claim may fail outside its stated region, period or unit." ], "uncertainty": "Limited to the stated source, boundary and transformation: Округление; не электрический выход всей установки", "status": "PASS", "status_scope": "Faithful representation within the stated boundary; not proof that a scenario will occur.", "evidence": [ "research-registry.json", "#ref-D07" ], "site_locations": [ "evidence.html#ref-D07" ] }, { "id": "C-M01", "exact_claim": "Учебный диапазон EROI", "claim_type": "model_or_interface_rule", "system_boundary": "одно условное хозяйство; один условный расчётный год", "numerator": null, "denominator": null, "energy_stage": null, "region": "одно условное хозяйство", "period": "один условный расчётный год", "units": "безразмерное отношение", "aggregation_rule": "Выбранный диапазон; не наблюдение и не годовой ряд", "primary_source": { "record_id": "M01", "url": null, "version": "v3", "locator": "#explore", "source_sha256": null }, "extraction_or_calculation": "Выбранный диапазон; не наблюдение и не годовой ряд", "falsifier": "The published interface rule, formula, units or boundary fail to match the executable implementation for at least one valid or invalid input.", "alternatives": [ "A different source vintage or system boundary may produce a different value.", "The claim may fail outside its stated region, period or unit." ], "uncertainty": "Limited to the stated source, boundary and transformation: Выбранный диапазон; не наблюдение и не годовой ряд", "status": "PASS", "status_scope": "Faithful representation within the stated boundary; not proof that a scenario will occur.", "evidence": [ "research-registry.json", "#ref-M01" ], "site_locations": [ "evidence.html#ref-M01" ] }, { "id": "C-M02", "exact_claim": "Арифметика шкалы", "claim_type": "model_or_interface_rule", "system_boundary": "одно условное хозяйство; один условный расчётный год", "numerator": null, "denominator": null, "energy_stage": null, "region": "одно условное хозяйство", "period": "один условный расчётный год", "units": "% валового выхода", "aggregation_rule": "Затраты=100/R, остаток=100−100/R; R=100/20/5", "primary_source": { "record_id": "M02", "url": null, "version": "v3", "locator": "#aggregation; app.js updateEROI", "source_sha256": null }, "extraction_or_calculation": "Затраты=100/R, остаток=100−100/R; R=100/20/5", "falsifier": "The published interface rule, formula, units or boundary fail to match the executable implementation for at least one valid or invalid input.", "alternatives": [ "A different source vintage or system boundary may produce a different value.", "The claim may fail outside its stated region, period or unit." ], "uncertainty": "Limited to the stated source, boundary and transformation: Затраты=100/R, остаток=100−100/R; R=100/20/5", "status": "PASS", "status_scope": "Faithful representation within the stated boundary; not proof that a scenario will occur.", "evidence": [ "research-registry.json", "#ref-M02" ], "site_locations": [ "evidence.html#ref-M02" ] }, { "id": "C-M03", "exact_claim": "Окно устойчивого снижения", "claim_type": "model_or_interface_rule", "system_boundary": "мир, учебные ответы; T−3…T", "numerator": null, "denominator": null, "energy_stage": null, "region": "мир, учебные ответы", "period": "T−3…T", "units": "годовых изменения", "aggregation_rule": "Четыре годовых наблюдения; не статистически оценённый порог", "primary_source": { "record_id": "M03", "url": null, "version": "scenario-v5", "locator": "#scenario-contract", "source_sha256": null }, "extraction_or_calculation": "Three comparisons across four annual observations T−3…T; project rule, not a statistically estimated threshold.", "falsifier": "The published interface rule, formula, units or boundary fail to match the executable implementation for at least one valid or invalid input.", "alternatives": [ "A different source vintage or system boundary may produce a different value.", "The claim may fail outside its stated region, period or unit." ], "uncertainty": "The three-comparison window is an uncalibrated interface rule and does not establish an empirical danger threshold.", "status": "PASS", "status_scope": "Faithful representation within the stated boundary; not proof that a scenario will occur.", "evidence": [ "research-registry.json", "#ref-M03" ], "site_locations": [ "evidence.html#ref-M03" ] }, { "id": "C-M04", "exact_claim": "Горизонт календаря", "claim_type": "model_or_interface_rule", "system_boundary": "мир; 2026–2050", "numerator": null, "denominator": null, "energy_stage": null, "region": "мир", "period": "2026–2050", "units": "год", "aggregation_rule": "Выбор вех; не вычисляет EROI", "primary_source": { "record_id": "M04", "url": null, "version": "v3", "locator": "#milestones", "source_sha256": null }, "extraction_or_calculation": "Выбор вех; не вычисляет EROI", "falsifier": "The published interface rule, formula, units or boundary fail to match the executable implementation for at least one valid or invalid input.", "alternatives": [ "A different source vintage or system boundary may produce a different value.", "The claim may fail outside its stated region, period or unit." ], "uncertainty": "Limited to the stated source, boundary and transformation: Выбор вех; не вычисляет EROI", "status": "PASS", "status_scope": "Faithful representation within the stated boundary; not proof that a scenario will occur.", "evidence": [ "research-registry.json", "#ref-M04" ], "site_locations": [ "evidence.html#ref-M04" ] }, { "id": "C-M05", "exact_claim": "Пример агрегирования", "claim_type": "model_or_interface_rule", "system_boundary": "два независимых условных источника; один общий условный период", "numerator": null, "denominator": null, "energy_stage": null, "region": "два независимых условных источника", "period": "один общий условный период", "units": "безразмерное отношение", "aggregation_rule": "Выходы 100+100, вложения 10+5; 200/15, округление до 13,33", "primary_source": { "record_id": "M05", "url": null, "version": "v3", "locator": "#aggregation", "source_sha256": null }, "extraction_or_calculation": "Выходы 100+100, вложения 10+5; 200/15, округление до 13,33", "falsifier": "The published interface rule, formula, units or boundary fail to match the executable implementation for at least one valid or invalid input.", "alternatives": [ "A different source vintage or system boundary may produce a different value.", "The claim may fail outside its stated region, period or unit." ], "uncertainty": "Limited to the stated source, boundary and transformation: Выходы 100+100, вложения 10+5; 200/15, округление до 13,33", "status": "PASS", "status_scope": "Faithful representation within the stated boundary; not proof that a scenario will occur.", "evidence": [ "research-registry.json", "#ref-M05" ], "site_locations": [ "evidence.html#ref-M05" ] }, { "id": "C-D08", "exact_claim": "LFP и NMC: RTE", "claim_type": "published_data_or_method", "system_boundary": "типовая модель DOE/PNNL, не мировой средний; 2021", "numerator": null, "denominator": null, "energy_stage": null, "region": "типовая модель DOE/PNNL, не мировой средний", "period": 2021, "units": "%, AC–AC", "aggregation_rule": "Перенос базового значения на границе трансформатора; не DC–DC", "primary_source": { "record_id": "D08", "url": "https://www.energy.gov/sites/default/files/2022-09/2022%20Grid%20Energy%20Storage%20Technology%20Cost%20and%20Performance%20Assessment.pdf", "version": "2022", "locator": "Таблица 4.4, стр.22", "source_sha256": null }, "extraction_or_calculation": "Перенос базового значения на границе трансформатора; не DC–DC", "falsifier": "DOE/PNNL Table 4.4 does not contain the 82.59% AC–AC transformer-boundary assumption.", "alternatives": [ "A different source vintage or system boundary may produce a different value.", "The claim may fail outside its stated region, period or unit." ], "uncertainty": "Limited to the stated source, boundary and transformation: Перенос базового значения на границе трансформатора; не DC–DC", "status": "PASS", "status_scope": "Faithful representation within the stated boundary; not proof that a scenario will occur.", "evidence": [ "research-registry.json", "#ref-D08" ], "site_locations": [ "evidence.html#ref-D08" ] }, { "id": "C-D09", "exact_claim": "LFP / NMC: циклы", "claim_type": "published_data_or_method", "system_boundary": "типовая модель DOE/PNNL; 2021", "numerator": null, "denominator": null, "energy_stage": null, "region": "типовая модель DOE/PNNL", "period": 2021, "units": "циклов", "aggregation_rule": "DOD80%; до остаточной энергии, равной 80% номинальной; не универсальная гарантия", "primary_source": { "record_id": "D09", "url": "https://www.energy.gov/sites/default/files/2022-09/2022%20Grid%20Energy%20Storage%20Technology%20Cost%20and%20Performance%20Assessment.pdf", "version": "2022", "locator": "Таблица 4.3, стр.22", "source_sha256": null }, "extraction_or_calculation": "DOD80%; до остаточной энергии, равной 80% номинальной; не универсальная гарантия", "falsifier": "DOE/PNNL Table 4.3 does not contain 2,400/1,520 cycles at the stated DOD and residual-capacity boundary.", "alternatives": [ "A different source vintage or system boundary may produce a different value.", "The claim may fail outside its stated region, period or unit." ], "uncertainty": "Limited to the stated source, boundary and transformation: DOD80%; до остаточной энергии, равной 80% номинальной; не универсальная гарантия", "status": "PASS", "status_scope": "Faithful representation within the stated boundary; not proof that a scenario will occur.", "evidence": [ "research-registry.json", "#ref-D09" ], "site_locations": [ "evidence.html#ref-D09" ] }, { "id": "C-D10", "exact_claim": "ГАЭС: RTE и календарный ресурс", "claim_type": "published_data_or_method", "system_boundary": "типовая модель DOE/PNNL; 2021", "numerator": null, "denominator": null, "energy_stage": null, "region": "типовая модель DOE/PNNL", "period": 2021, "units": [ "%", "лет" ], "aggregation_rule": "80% системный RTE; 60 лет расчётного срока", "primary_source": { "record_id": "D10", "url": "https://www.energy.gov/sites/default/files/2022-09/2022%20Grid%20Energy%20Storage%20Technology%20Cost%20and%20Performance%20Assessment.pdf", "version": "2022", "locator": "Раздел 4.6.4, стр.67", "source_sha256": null }, "extraction_or_calculation": "80% системный RTE; 60 лет расчётного срока", "falsifier": "DOE/PNNL section 4.6.4 does not contain 80% RTE or the 60-year model assumption.", "alternatives": [ "A different source vintage or system boundary may produce a different value.", "The claim may fail outside its stated region, period or unit." ], "uncertainty": "Limited to the stated source, boundary and transformation: 80% системный RTE; 60 лет расчётного срока", "status": "PASS", "status_scope": "Faithful representation within the stated boundary; not proof that a scenario will occur.", "evidence": [ "research-registry.json", "#ref-D10" ], "site_locations": [ "evidence.html#ref-D10" ] }, { "id": "C-D11", "exact_claim": "Водород: RTE и календарный ресурс", "claim_type": "published_data_or_method", "system_boundary": "типовая модель DOE/PNNL; 2021", "numerator": null, "denominator": null, "energy_stage": null, "region": "типовая модель DOE/PNNL", "period": 2021, "units": [ "%", "лет" ], "aggregation_rule": "AC–AC; потери хранения исключены; срок установки предусматривает замены", "primary_source": { "record_id": "D11", "url": "https://www.energy.gov/sites/default/files/2022-09/2022%20Grid%20Energy%20Storage%20Technology%20Cost%20and%20Performance%20Assessment.pdf", "version": "2022", "locator": "Раздел 4.9.4; таблица 4.53, стр.111–112", "source_sha256": null }, "extraction_or_calculation": "AC–AC; потери хранения исключены; срок установки предусматривает замены", "falsifier": "DOE/PNNL section 4.9.4 does not contain 31% AC–AC RTE or the 30-year installation assumption.", "alternatives": [ "A different source vintage or system boundary may produce a different value.", "The claim may fail outside its stated region, period or unit." ], "uncertainty": "Limited to the stated source, boundary and transformation: AC–AC; потери хранения исключены; срок установки предусматривает замены", "status": "PASS", "status_scope": "Faithful representation within the stated boundary; not proof that a scenario will occur.", "evidence": [ "research-registry.json", "#ref-D11" ], "site_locations": [ "evidence.html#ref-D11" ] }, { "id": "C-M06", "exact_claim": "Учебный баланс переработки", "claim_type": "model_or_interface_rule", "system_boundary": "условная территория; один год", "numerator": null, "denominator": null, "energy_stage": null, "region": "условная территория", "period": "один год", "units": [ "т", "%", "%", "т", "т" ], "aggregation_rule": "100×0,8×0,9=72; 100−72=28; энергозатраты неизвестны; не используется как опубликованная оценка", "primary_source": { "record_id": "M06", "url": null, "version": "I3", "locator": "#recycling-balance", "source_sha256": null }, "extraction_or_calculation": "100×0,8×0,9=72; 100−72=28; энергозатраты неизвестны; не используется как опубликованная оценка", "falsifier": "The published interface rule, formula, units or boundary fail to match the executable implementation for at least one valid or invalid input.", "alternatives": [ "A different source vintage or system boundary may produce a different value.", "The claim may fail outside its stated region, period or unit." ], "uncertainty": "Limited to the stated source, boundary and transformation: 100×0,8×0,9=72; 100−72=28; энергозатраты неизвестны; не используется как опубликованная оценка", "status": "PASS", "status_scope": "Faithful representation within the stated boundary; not proof that a scenario will occur.", "evidence": [ "research-registry.json", "#ref-M06" ], "site_locations": [ "evidence.html#ref-M06" ] }, { "id": "C-D12", "exact_claim": "Декомпозиция конечного спроса по физической активности и энергоёмкости", "claim_type": "published_data_or_method", "system_boundary": "страны и сектора с доступными данными; методика и данные с 2000 года", "numerator": null, "denominator": null, "energy_stage": null, "region": "страны и сектора с доступными данными", "period": "методика и данные с 2000 года", "units": "зависит от услуги; пример МЭА — МДж/пасс.-км", "aggregation_rule": "В модели сайта используется только общий принцип физическая активность × энергоёмкость; значения МЭА автоматически не подставляются", "primary_source": { "record_id": "D12", "url": "https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/data-tools/energy-efficiency-indicators-data-explorer", "version": "страница обновлена 2026-07-17", "locator": "Overview; Analysis; activity, structure and efficiency decomposition", "source_sha256": null }, "extraction_or_calculation": "В модели сайта используется только общий принцип физическая активность × энергоёмкость; значения МЭА автоматически не подставляются", "falsifier": "The IEA indicator method does not decompose energy use using physical activity, structure and intensity.", "alternatives": [ "A different source vintage or system boundary may produce a different value.", "The claim may fail outside its stated region, period or unit." ], "uncertainty": "Limited to the stated source, boundary and transformation: В модели сайта используется только общий принцип физическая активность × энергоёмкость; значения МЭА автоматически не подставляются", "status": "PASS", "status_scope": "Faithful representation within the stated boundary; not proof that a scenario will occur.", "evidence": [ "research-registry.json", "#ref-D12" ], "site_locations": [ "evidence.html#ref-D12" ] }, { "id": "C-D13", "exact_claim": "Нижневосходящий расчёт энергии для набора физических услуг", "claim_type": "published_data_or_method", "system_boundary": "глобальный сценарий достойного уровня жизни; сценарная методика 2020", "numerator": null, "denominator": null, "energy_stage": null, "region": "глобальный сценарий достойного уровня жизни", "period": "сценарная методика 2020", "units": "МДж или кВт·ч после согласования единиц", "aggregation_rule": "Заимствован принцип activity level × energy intensity; опубликованные уровни услуг не перенесены в учебный калькулятор", "primary_source": { "record_id": "D13", "url": "https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2020.102168", "version": "2020", "locator": "Methods and data, section 3.1", "source_sha256": null }, "extraction_or_calculation": "Заимствован принцип activity level × energy intensity; опубликованные уровни услуг не перенесены в учебный калькулятор", "falsifier": "The cited peer-reviewed model does not calculate service requirements from physical service levels and energy intensities.", "alternatives": [ "A different source vintage or system boundary may produce a different value.", "The claim may fail outside its stated region, period or unit." ], "uncertainty": "Limited to the stated source, boundary and transformation: Заимствован принцип activity level × energy intensity; опубликованные уровни услуг не перенесены в учебный калькулятор", "status": "PASS", "status_scope": "Faithful representation within the stated boundary; not proof that a scenario will occur.", "evidence": [ "research-registry.json", "#ref-D13" ], "site_locations": [ "evidence.html#ref-D13" ] }, { "id": "C-M07", "exact_claim": "Годовой энергетический тест частичной демонстрационной корзины физических услуг", "claim_type": "model_or_interface_rule", "system_boundary": "одна заданная пользователем территория; один заданный расчётный год", "numerator": null, "denominator": null, "energy_stage": null, "region": "одна заданная пользователем территория", "period": "один заданный расчётный год", "units": "ГВт·ч/год, физическая единица услуги/год и % покрытия для обязательной строки", "aggregation_rule": "Статус строки required/unknown/N/A задаётся явно. Для валидной обязательной строки E_min,s=P×a_s×q_s×i_s; Q_cap,s=A_s/i_s; K_s=A_s/E_min,s; ΔE_s=max(0,E_min,s−A_s). N/A исключается; нулевой или неизвестный норматив не создаёт PASS. min(K_s) отвечает только на вопрос, покрыты ли все обязательные строки; публикуются также весь вектор, число и абсолютный объём дефицитов.", "primary_source": { "record_id": "M07", "url": null, "version": "I18", "locator": "#service-demand; app.js serviceDemandState; service-demand-model.json", "source_sha256": null }, "extraction_or_calculation": "A_s трактуется как годовая конечная энергия, выделенная только одной услуге в той же территории и году без двойного счёта. Она переводится в энергодостижимый физический объём, но сама по себе не доказывает твёрдую мощность, своевременную доставку или непрерывность.", "falsifier": "The published interface rule, formula, units or boundary fail to match the executable implementation for at least one valid or invalid input.", "alternatives": [ "A different source vintage or system boundary may produce a different value.", "The claim may fail outside its stated region, period or unit." ], "uncertainty": "Минимумы задаёт пользователь; четыре строки образуют частичную демонстрационную корзину. Часовые и сезонные профили, мощности, сети, накопители, резервы, состояние инфраструктуры, оборудование, материалы, труд, пространственное распределение и уязвимые группы не рассчитаны.", "status": "PASS", "status_scope": "Faithful representation within the stated boundary; not proof that a scenario will occur.", "evidence": [ "research-registry.json", "service-demand-model.json", "#ref-M07" ], "site_locations": [ "evidence.html#ref-M07" ] }, { "id": "C-D14", "exact_claim": "WPP 2024: population and median age by UN major region", "claim_type": "published_data_or_method", "system_boundary": "World and six UN major regions; {'estimate': 2023, 'medium_variant': 2050, 'reference_date': '1 July'}", "numerator": null, "denominator": null, "energy_stage": null, "region": "World and six UN major regions", "period": { "estimate": 2023, "medium_variant": 2050, "reference_date": "1 July" }, "units": { "population": "million persons", "median_age": "years", "change": "%" }, "aggregation_rule": "Population source unit thousands divided by 1000; site display rounds population to 0.001 million, median age and change to 0.1", "primary_source": { "record_id": "D14", "url": "https://population.un.org/wpp/assets/Excel%20Files/1_Indicator%20(Standard)/EXCEL_FILES/1_General/WPP2024_GEN_F01_DEMOGRAPHIC_INDICATORS_COMPACT.xlsx", "version": "World Population Prospects 2024, File GEN/01/REV1", "locator": "Estimates and Medium variant sheets; source row retained for every region", "source_sha256": "98e34d9b65b53858cd08a57a566e45050b08093ad85ba5714fe6fbd78055ae6d" }, "extraction_or_calculation": "Population source unit thousands divided by 1000; site display rounds population to 0.001 million, median age and change to 0.1", "falsifier": "Re-extraction of the named WPP workbook rows, codes and units differs from the stored values beyond display rounding.", "alternatives": [ "A different source vintage or system boundary may produce a different value.", "The claim may fail outside its stated region, period or unit." ], "uncertainty": "Limited to the stated source, boundary and transformation: Population source unit thousands divided by 1000; site display rounds population to 0.001 million, median age and change to 0.1", "status": "PASS", "status_scope": "Faithful representation within the stated boundary; not proof that a scenario will occur.", "evidence": [ "research-registry.json", "#ref-D14" ], "site_locations": [ "evidence.html#ref-D14", "index.html#demand", "index.html#milestones" ] }, { "id": "C-D15", "exact_claim": "WPP 2024 methodology and projection status", "claim_type": "published_data_or_method", "system_boundary": "UN WPP locations; WPP 2024 release", "numerator": null, "denominator": null, "energy_stage": null, "region": "UN WPP locations", "period": "WPP 2024 release", "units": null, "aggregation_rule": "Interpretive boundary only; no numeric transformation", "primary_source": { "record_id": "D15", "url": "https://population.un.org/wpp/assets/Files/WPP2024_Methodology.pdf", "version": "WPP 2024", "locator": "Methodology of the United Nations population estimates and projections", "source_sha256": null }, "extraction_or_calculation": "Interpretive boundary only; no numeric transformation", "falsifier": "WPP 2024 documentation classifies 2050 medium values as observations rather than projections.", "alternatives": [ "A different source vintage or system boundary may produce a different value.", "The claim may fail outside its stated region, period or unit." ], "uncertainty": "Limited to the stated source, boundary and transformation: Interpretive boundary only; no numeric transformation", "status": "PASS", "status_scope": "Faithful representation within the stated boundary; not proof that a scenario will occur.", "evidence": [ "research-registry.json", "#ref-D15" ], "site_locations": [ "evidence.html#ref-D15", "index.html#demand", "index.html#milestones" ] }, { "id": "C-D16", "exact_claim": "Access to electricity (% of population)", "claim_type": "published_data_or_method", "system_boundary": "World and seven World Bank regional aggregates; 2024", "numerator": null, "denominator": null, "energy_stage": null, "region": "World and seven World Bank regional aggregates", "period": 2024, "units": "% of population", "aggregation_rule": "Raw API value retained; site display rounded to 0.1 percentage point", "primary_source": { "record_id": "D16", "url": "https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/EG.ELC.ACCS.ZS", "version": "API source 2; last updated 2026-07-13", "locator": "https://api.worldbank.org/v2/country/WLD;EAS;ECS;LCN;MEA;NAC;SAS;SSF/indicator/EG.ELC.ACCS.ZS?date=2022:2024&format=json&per_page=200", "source_sha256": "50ebd4117b508563d793289b1911cc488af4258751fe9c68b693e502f97b770d" }, "extraction_or_calculation": "Raw API value retained; site display rounded to 0.1 percentage point", "falsifier": "The named World Bank API indicator, year or region code does not reproduce the stored electricity-access value.", "alternatives": [ "A different source vintage or system boundary may produce a different value.", "The claim may fail outside its stated region, period or unit." ], "uncertainty": "Limited to the stated source, boundary and transformation: Raw API value retained; site display rounded to 0.1 percentage point", "status": "PASS", "status_scope": "Faithful representation within the stated boundary; not proof that a scenario will occur.", "evidence": [ "research-registry.json", "#ref-D16" ], "site_locations": [ "evidence.html#ref-D16" ] }, { "id": "C-D17", "exact_claim": "People using safely managed drinking water services (% of population)", "claim_type": "published_data_or_method", "system_boundary": "World and seven World Bank regional aggregates; 2024", "numerator": null, "denominator": null, "energy_stage": null, "region": "World and seven World Bank regional aggregates", "period": 2024, "units": "% of population", "aggregation_rule": "Raw API value retained; site display rounded to 0.1 percentage point", "primary_source": { "record_id": "D17", "url": "https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SH.H2O.SMDW.ZS", "version": "API source 2; last updated 2026-07-13", "locator": "https://api.worldbank.org/v2/country/WLD;EAS;ECS;LCN;MEA;NAC;SAS;SSF/indicator/SH.H2O.SMDW.ZS?date=2022:2024&format=json&per_page=200", "source_sha256": "c6c4a2f0b831de9b4d3820426b8b4fe021af9865d074d2a82ad7014a6d4f1c1c" }, "extraction_or_calculation": "Raw API value retained; site display rounded to 0.1 percentage point", "falsifier": "The named World Bank/JMP indicator, year or region code does not reproduce the stored safely-managed-water value.", "alternatives": [ "A different source vintage or system boundary may produce a different value.", "The claim may fail outside its stated region, period or unit." ], "uncertainty": "Limited to the stated source, boundary and transformation: Raw API value retained; site display rounded to 0.1 percentage point", "status": "PASS", "status_scope": "Faithful representation within the stated boundary; not proof that a scenario will occur.", "evidence": [ "research-registry.json", "#ref-D17" ], "site_locations": [ "evidence.html#ref-D17" ] }, { "id": "C-D18", "exact_claim": "People using safely managed sanitation services (% of population)", "claim_type": "published_data_or_method", "system_boundary": "World and seven World Bank regional aggregates; 2024", "numerator": null, "denominator": null, "energy_stage": null, "region": "World and seven World Bank regional aggregates", "period": 2024, "units": "% of population", "aggregation_rule": "Raw API value retained; site display rounded to 0.1 percentage point", "primary_source": { "record_id": "D18", "url": "https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SH.STA.SMSS.ZS", "version": "API source 2; last updated 2026-07-13", "locator": "https://api.worldbank.org/v2/country/WLD;EAS;ECS;LCN;MEA;NAC;SAS;SSF/indicator/SH.STA.SMSS.ZS?date=2022:2024&format=json&per_page=200", "source_sha256": "254c8f68f184896da4063554a103321fd5f9a139c52acd89e88a315910e94228" }, "extraction_or_calculation": "Raw API value retained; site display rounded to 0.1 percentage point", "falsifier": "The named World Bank/JMP indicator, year or region code does not reproduce the stored safely-managed-sanitation value.", "alternatives": [ "A different source vintage or system boundary may produce a different value.", "The claim may fail outside its stated region, period or unit." ], "uncertainty": "Limited to the stated source, boundary and transformation: Raw API value retained; site display rounded to 0.1 percentage point", "status": "PASS", "status_scope": "Faithful representation within the stated boundary; not proof that a scenario will occur.", "evidence": [ "research-registry.json", "#ref-D18" ], "site_locations": [ "evidence.html#ref-D18" ] }, { "id": "C-M08", "exact_claim": "I9 population and access extraction contract", "claim_type": "model_or_interface_rule", "system_boundary": "source-defined aggregates; I9 build", "numerator": null, "denominator": null, "energy_stage": null, "region": "source-defined aggregates", "period": "I9 build", "units": null, "aggregation_rule": "Validate expected codes, years and 0–100 bounds; retain raw values, source hashes and WPP row locators; round only for display", "primary_source": { "record_id": "M08", "url": null, "version": "I9", "locator": "build_i9_population_access_data.py; population-access-data.json; #population-access", "source_sha256": null }, "extraction_or_calculation": "Validate expected codes, years and 0–100 bounds; retain raw values, source hashes and WPP row locators; round only for display", "falsifier": "The published interface rule, formula, units or boundary fail to match the executable implementation for at least one valid or invalid input.", "alternatives": [ "A different source vintage or system boundary may produce a different value.", "The claim may fail outside its stated region, period or unit." ], "uncertainty": "Limited to the stated source, boundary and transformation: Validate expected codes, years and 0–100 bounds; retain raw values, source hashes and WPP row locators; round only for display", "status": "PASS", "status_scope": "Faithful representation within the stated boundary; not proof that a scenario will occur.", "evidence": [ "research-registry.json", "#ref-M08" ], "site_locations": [ "evidence.html#ref-M08" ] }, { "id": "C-M09", "exact_claim": "I16 annual EROI extraction contract", "claim_type": "model_or_interface_rule", "system_boundary": "WRLD; 1971–2020", "numerator": null, "denominator": null, "energy_stage": null, "region": "WRLD", "period": "1971–2020", "units": null, "aggregation_rule": "Verify source SHA256; exact row-key match; require continuous year columns and non-empty values; preserve raw decimal strings; round only for HTML display", "primary_source": { "record_id": "M09", "url": "https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.25311358", "version": "Figshare version 1; I16", "locator": "file 46240243; build_i16_three_boundaries.py; eroi-history-data.json; #eroi-history", "source_sha256": "12241f109b0e1f540f591fbaec912961ea0b458365a029f7dae5396cfd10340d" }, "extraction_or_calculation": "Verify source SHA256; exact row-key match; require continuous year columns and non-empty values; preserve raw decimal strings; round only for HTML display", "falsifier": "The published interface rule, formula, units or boundary fail to match the executable implementation for at least one valid or invalid input.", "alternatives": [ "A different source vintage or system boundary may produce a different value.", "The claim may fail outside its stated region, period or unit." ], "uncertainty": "Limited to the stated source, boundary and transformation: Verify source SHA256; exact row-key match; require continuous year columns and non-empty values; preserve raw decimal strings; round only for HTML display", "status": "PASS", "status_scope": "Faithful representation within the stated boundary; not proof that a scenario will occur.", "evidence": [ "research-registry.json", "#ref-M09" ], "site_locations": [ "evidence.html#ref-M09" ] }, { "id": "C-D19", "exact_claim": "Доступный лом и вторичная поставка меди в сценарии APS", "claim_type": "published_data_or_method", "system_boundary": "мир; [2030, 2050]", "numerator": null, "denominator": null, "energy_stage": null, "region": "мир", "period": [ 2030, 2050 ], "units": "млн т Cu и % спроса", "aggregation_rule": "Опубликованные округлённые значения; доступный лом отделён от поставки после потерь", "primary_source": { "record_id": "D19", "url": "https://www.iea.org/reports/recycling-of-critical-minerals", "version": "2024 report, revised December 2025", "locator": "PDF pp. 83-84, Figures 2.23-2.24", "source_sha256": "bf54828d9f8b9e05646b0f22e5b1a4a9b183b590974974abe1824d4f053c3263" }, "extraction_or_calculation": "Опубликованные округлённые значения; доступный лом отделён от поставки после потерь", "falsifier": "The detailed copper section on PDF page 83 does not state approximately 19/27 Mt and 60/70%; the internal 28 Mt executive-summary conflict must also remain disclosed.", "alternatives": [ "The revised executive summary reports 28 Mt for 2050 while the detailed section reports 27 Mt.", "Collection, yield and direct-use scrap produce different secondary-supply quantities." ], "uncertainty": "Scenario projection and source-internal 27/28 Mt discrepancy for 2050; values are rounded.", "status": "PASS", "status_scope": "Faithful representation within the stated boundary; not proof that a scenario will occur.", "evidence": [ "research-registry.json", "#ref-D19" ], "site_locations": [ "evidence.html#ref-D19" ] }, { "id": "C-D20", "exact_claim": "Сроки службы медьсодержащих изделий и границы доступного лома", "claim_type": "published_data_or_method", "system_boundary": "мир; классы изделий", "numerator": null, "denominator": null, "energy_stage": null, "region": "мир", "period": "классы изделий", "units": "лет", "aggregation_rule": "Диапазоны перенесены без усреднения; не назначены каждому изделию", "primary_source": { "record_id": "D20", "url": "https://www.iea.org/reports/recycling-of-critical-minerals", "version": "2024 report, revised December 2025", "locator": "PDF pp. 32-33, 83, 85", "source_sha256": "bf54828d9f8b9e05646b0f22e5b1a4a9b183b590974974abe1824d4f053c3263" }, "extraction_or_calculation": "Диапазоны перенесены без усреднения; не назначены каждому изделию", "falsifier": "The cited IEA pages do not support the stated 5–10 and 20–50 year application ranges.", "alternatives": [ "A different source vintage or system boundary may produce a different value.", "The claim may fail outside its stated region, period or unit." ], "uncertainty": "Limited to the stated source, boundary and transformation: Диапазоны перенесены без усреднения; не назначены каждому изделию", "status": "PASS", "status_scope": "Faithful representation within the stated boundary; not proof that a scenario will occur.", "evidence": [ "research-registry.json", "#ref-D20" ], "site_locations": [ "evidence.html#ref-D20" ] }, { "id": "C-D21", "exact_claim": "Относительные энергозатраты переработанного алюминия", "claim_type": "published_data_or_method", "system_boundary": "не задано в источнике как географический ряд; сравнение технологических маршрутов", "numerator": null, "denominator": null, "energy_stage": null, "region": "не задано в источнике как географический ряд", "period": "сравнение технологических маршрутов", "units": "% меньше энергии, чем первичное производство алюминия", "aggregation_rule": "Относительная оценка; не преобразована в кВт·ч/т и не перенесена на медь", "primary_source": { "record_id": "D21", "url": "https://www.iea.org/reports/recycling-of-critical-minerals", "version": "2024 report, revised December 2025", "locator": "PDF p. 40, Box 1.3", "source_sha256": "bf54828d9f8b9e05646b0f22e5b1a4a9b183b590974974abe1824d4f053c3263" }, "extraction_or_calculation": "Относительная оценка; не преобразована в кВт·ч/т и не перенесена на медь", "falsifier": "The cited IEA page 40 does not state 95% lower energy for recycled aluminium.", "alternatives": [ "A different source vintage or system boundary may produce a different value.", "The claim may fail outside its stated region, period or unit." ], "uncertainty": "Limited to the stated source, boundary and transformation: Относительная оценка; не преобразована в кВт·ч/т и не перенесена на медь", "status": "PASS", "status_scope": "Faithful representation within the stated boundary; not proof that a scenario will occur.", "evidence": [ "research-registry.json", "#ref-D21" ], "site_locations": [ "evidence.html#ref-D21" ] }, { "id": "C-M10", "exact_claim": "Условный массовый баланс переработки I11", "claim_type": "model_or_interface_rule", "system_boundary": "одна выбранная пользователем система; один выбранный период", "numerator": null, "denominator": null, "energy_stage": null, "region": "одна выбранная пользователем система", "period": "один выбранный период", "units": "масса и проценты в одной пользовательской границе", "aggregation_rule": "Выход=лом×сбор×сортировка×процесс; первичная потребность=max(спрос−выход,0); пустой вход=UNKNOWN", "primary_source": { "record_id": "M10", "url": null, "version": "NP176-I11", "locator": "#recycling-limits; recycling-boundaries-data.json", "source_sha256": null }, "extraction_or_calculation": "Выход=лом×сбор×сортировка×процесс; первичная потребность=max(спрос−выход,0); пустой вход=UNKNOWN", "falsifier": "The published interface rule, formula, units or boundary fail to match the executable implementation for at least one valid or invalid input.", "alternatives": [ "A different source vintage or system boundary may produce a different value.", "The claim may fail outside its stated region, period or unit." ], "uncertainty": "Limited to the stated source, boundary and transformation: Выход=лом×сбор×сортировка×процесс; первичная потребность=max(спрос−выход,0); пустой вход=UNKNOWN", "status": "PASS", "status_scope": "Faithful representation within the stated boundary; not proof that a scenario will occur.", "evidence": [ "research-registry.json", "#ref-M10" ], "site_locations": [ "evidence.html#ref-M10" ] }, { "id": "C-D22", "exact_claim": "Три сценарных траектории systemwide EROI мировой электроэнергетики", "claim_type": "published_data_or_method", "system_boundary": "мир; агрегат девяти регионов; [2025, 2050]", "numerator": null, "denominator": null, "energy_stage": "final electricity consumption", "region": "мир; агрегат девяти регионов", "period": [ 2025, 2050 ], "units": "безразмерный EROI", "aggregation_rule": "Приближённое считывание осей до 0,1; не авторская таблица; три из девяти маршрутов без ранжирования", "primary_source": { "record_id": "D22", "url": "https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-023-44232-9", "version": "Nature Communications 15, 208 (2024)", "locator": "Figure 2a-b; final consumption (F)", "source_sha256": "4e461931414fd7a79ffd81991bbe528db3b90838fdaa0dcc5073acfe4afcc44c" }, "extraction_or_calculation": "Приближённое считывание осей до 0,1; не авторская таблица; три из девяти маршрутов без ранжирования", "falsifier": "Independent re-digitisation of Figure 2 differs beyond the declared 0.1 display precision, or the source boundary is not the global power system at final electricity consumption.", "alternatives": [ "Other six scenarios in the paper follow different paths.", "Different CED inventories, network energy, recycling or regional aggregation can change EROI." ], "uncertainty": "Approximate manual digitisation to 0.1 from a figure; author numeric table was not available; only three of nine scenarios displayed.", "status": "PASS", "status_scope": "Faithful representation within the stated boundary; not proof that a scenario will occur.", "evidence": [ "research-registry.json", "#ref-D22" ], "site_locations": [ "evidence.html#ref-D22" ] }, { "id": "C-M11", "exact_claim": "Разделение общей шкалы EROI и сценарного EROI электроэнергетики", "claim_type": "model_or_interface_rule", "system_boundary": "мир в границе источника; [2026, 2050]", "numerator": null, "denominator": null, "energy_stage": null, "region": "мир в границе источника", "period": [ 2026, 2050 ], "units": "год и EROI", "aggregation_rule": "Год интерполирует только показатель электроэнергетики; общая шкала остаётся ручной и независимой; переноса на всю энергетику нет.", "primary_source": { "record_id": "M11", "url": null, "version": "NP176-I14", "locator": "#milestones; eroi-scenario-pathways.json", "source_sha256": null }, "extraction_or_calculation": "Год интерполирует только показатель электроэнергетики; общая шкала остаётся ручной и независимой; переноса на всю энергетику нет.", "falsifier": "The published interface rule, formula, units or boundary fail to match the executable implementation for at least one valid or invalid input.", "alternatives": [ "A different source vintage or system boundary may produce a different value.", "The claim may fail outside its stated region, period or unit." ], "uncertainty": "Limited to the stated source, boundary and transformation: Год интерполирует только показатель электроэнергетики; общая шкала остаётся ручной и независимой; переноса на всю энергетику нет.", "status": "PASS", "status_scope": "Faithful representation within the stated boundary; not proof that a scenario will occur.", "evidence": [ "research-registry.json", "#ref-M11" ], "site_locations": [ "evidence.html#ref-M11" ] }, { "id": "C-D23", "exact_claim": "Electricity share of world total final energy consumption", "claim_type": "published_data_or_method", "system_boundary": "world; 2025", "numerator": null, "denominator": null, "energy_stage": "total final consumption", "region": "world", "period": 2025, "units": "%", "aggregation_rule": "Value retained as published; not interpreted as a primary-energy share or whole-energy EROI weight", "primary_source": { "record_id": "D23", "url": "https://www.iea.org/reports/electricity-2026/demand", "version": "Electricity 2026", "locator": "Demand; electrification share increases from 21% in 2025 to 24% in 2030", "source_sha256": null }, "extraction_or_calculation": "Value retained as published; not interpreted as a primary-energy share or whole-energy EROI weight", "falsifier": "IEA Electricity 2026 does not state that electricity is 21% of total final consumption in 2025.", "alternatives": [ "A different source vintage or system boundary may produce a different value.", "The claim may fail outside its stated region, period or unit." ], "uncertainty": "Limited to the stated source, boundary and transformation: Value retained as published; not interpreted as a primary-energy share or whole-energy EROI weight", "status": "PASS", "status_scope": "Faithful representation within the stated boundary; not proof that a scenario will occur.", "evidence": [ "research-registry.json", "#ref-D23" ], "site_locations": [ "evidence.html#ref-D23" ] }, { "id": "C-D24", "exact_claim": "Переработка меди использует около 15% энергии, необходимой для добычи и переработки первичной меди", "claim_type": "published_data_or_method", "system_boundary": "отраслевой средний ориентир; география отдельно не задана; опубликовано в отчёте 2024, revision 2025-12; не временной ряд", "numerator": null, "denominator": null, "energy_stage": null, "region": "отраслевой средний ориентир; география отдельно не задана", "period": "опубликовано в отчёте 2024, revision 2025-12; не временной ряд", "units": "% энергии первичного маршрута", "aggregation_rule": "Перенесено как относительная доля без преобразования в кВт·ч/т; не переносится на конкретный маршрут", "primary_source": { "record_id": "D24", "url": "https://www.iea.org/reports/recycling-of-critical-minerals", "version": "IEA 2024; revised December 2025", "locator": "PDF page 138; Cross-cutting issues; Comparison of recycled versus primary production", "source_sha256": "bf54828d9f8b9e05646b0f22e5b1a4a9b183b590974974abe1824d4f053c3263" }, "extraction_or_calculation": "Перенесено как относительная доля без преобразования в кВт·ч/т; не переносится на конкретный маршрут", "falsifier": "IEA PDF page 138 does not state that copper recycling uses 15% of the energy required for primary copper mining and processing.", "alternatives": [ "Route-, grade-, geography- and energy-mix-specific copper recycling can differ from the industry average.", "Absolute process energy can change even if a relative ratio is similar." ], "uncertainty": "Industry-average relative estimate only; no absolute kWh/t and no route-, grade-, geography- or energy-mix specificity.", "status": "PASS", "status_scope": "Faithful representation within the stated boundary; not proof that a scenario will occur.", "evidence": [ "research-registry.json", "#ref-D24" ], "site_locations": [ "evidence.html#ref-D24" ] }, { "id": "S01", "exact_claim": "Первичный, конечный и полезный EROI мирового ископаемого энергомикса в 1971–2020 имеют разные уровни и направления изменения; единого EROI года без указания стадии нет.", "claim_type": "bounded_inference", "system_boundary": "World fossil-fuel mix; three separately reported energy stages", "numerator": null, "denominator": null, "energy_stage": null, "region": "world", "period": "1971–2020", "units": "dimensionless ratio", "aggregation_rule": "No aggregation beyond the cited records unless explicitly stated.", "primary_source": { "record_ids": [ "D25", "D01", "D02" ] }, "extraction_or_calculation": "Synthesis restricted to the boundaries of the cited records.", "falsifier": "The three stage-specific series become identical after applying their published definitions, or the page presents them as one interchangeable quantity.", "alternatives": [ "A different technology mix or capital-inclusive boundary could change both series.", "A systemwide all-energy series could behave differently." ], "uncertainty": "Only the published fossil-mix annual-flow boundary is tested.", "status": "PASS", "status_scope": "Scientific or model status of this exact synthesis claim.", "evidence": [ "D25", "D01", "D02", "#eroi-history" ], "site_locations": [ "#eroi-history" ] }, { "id": "S02", "exact_claim": "Наблюдаемый годовой EROI всей мировой энергетики после 2020 года в проекте не установлен; показанные значения являются сценарными модельными траекториями.", "claim_type": "unknown_quantity", "system_boundary": "Observed world all-energy system would require measurement on the same final-energy boundary as D28", "numerator": null, "denominator": null, "energy_stage": null, "region": "world", "period": "2021–2050", "units": "dimensionless ratio", "aggregation_rule": "No aggregation beyond the cited records unless explicitly stated.", "primary_source": { "record_ids": [ "D28" ] }, "extraction_or_calculation": "D28 supplies scenario outputs only; no observation is relabelled as measured history.", "falsifier": "A verified observed annual whole-energy series on the same boundary is added and labelled as observation.", "alternatives": [ "D28 provides published scenario outputs for four 1.5°C-compatible pathways.", "Historical fossil-mix series exists but ends in 2020 and excludes capital." ], "uncertainty": "The scenario model is informative about conditional futures but does not measure which pathway or current whole-energy EROI is true.", "status": "UNKNOWN", "status_scope": "Scientific or model status of this exact synthesis claim.", "evidence": [ "D28", "forecast-model-card.json", "#eroi-history" ], "site_locations": [ "timeline.html#model", "audit.html#unknown-gates", "#eroi-history" ] }, { "id": "S03", "exact_claim": "Дата достижения EROI=5 и универсальный порог цивилизационного краха не установлены.", "claim_type": "unknown_quantity", "system_boundary": "No accepted universal civilisation boundary is present", "numerator": null, "denominator": null, "energy_stage": null, "region": "world", "period": "unspecified", "units": "year and dimensionless ratio", "aggregation_rule": "No aggregation beyond the cited records unless explicitly stated.", "primary_source": { "record_ids": [] }, "extraction_or_calculation": "Synthesis restricted to the boundaries of the cited records.", "falsifier": "Robust cross-system evidence identifies a reproducible universal threshold and a calibrated dated trajectory to it.", "alternatives": [ "Thresholds may differ by services, institutions, distribution, technology and system boundary.", "Published power-sector literature discusses other 'net energy cliff' values under its own assumptions." ], "uncertainty": "No calibrated causal model connects a universal EROI value to a collapse date.", "status": "UNKNOWN", "status_scope": "Scientific or model status of this exact synthesis claim.", "evidence": [ "#explore", "#model-card" ], "site_locations": [ "#explore", "#model-card" ] }, { "id": "S04", "exact_claim": "Сценарные траектории Sahin et al. относятся к мировой электроэнергетике и не представляют EROI всей энергетики.", "claim_type": "boundary_inference", "system_boundary": "Global power system at final electricity consumption", "numerator": null, "denominator": null, "energy_stage": "final electricity consumption", "region": "world, nine-region aggregate", "period": "2015–2050", "units": "dimensionless ratio", "aggregation_rule": "No aggregation beyond the cited records unless explicitly stated.", "primary_source": { "record_ids": [ "D22", "D23" ] }, "extraction_or_calculation": "Synthesis restricted to the boundaries of the cited records.", "falsifier": "The source models all final energy carriers under a whole-energy numerator and denominator, or a valid all-energy aggregation is supplied.", "alternatives": [ "Sector coupling may broaden a future model boundary.", "Other energy carriers can have different returns and investment flows." ], "uncertainty": "Electricity was about 21% of final energy consumption in 2025; a subsystem cannot stand for the total without aggregation.", "status": "PASS", "status_scope": "Scientific or model status of this exact synthesis claim.", "evidence": [ "D22", "D23", "#milestones" ], "site_locations": [ "#milestones" ] }, { "id": "S05", "exact_claim": "В I15 выбор сценария и года изменяет только отдельный показатель EROI электроэнергетики; верхняя учебная шкала остаётся независимой.", "claim_type": "implementation_claim", "system_boundary": "Current website interface", "numerator": null, "denominator": null, "energy_stage": null, "region": "not geographic", "period": "I15", "units": "interface state", "aggregation_rule": "No aggregation beyond the cited records unless explicitly stated.", "primary_source": { "record_ids": [ "M11" ] }, "extraction_or_calculation": "Synthesis restricted to the boundaries of the cited records.", "falsifier": "A browser interaction changes or disables the upper EROI scale after selecting a power pathway.", "alternatives": [ "Future code changes could regress the separation." ], "uncertainty": "Technical behavior only; it does not validate the underlying scenario.", "status": "PASS", "status_scope": "Scientific or model status of this exact synthesis claim.", "evidence": [ "M11", "#explore", "#milestones" ], "site_locations": [ "#explore", "#milestones" ] }, { "id": "S06", "exact_claim": "IEA указывает отраслевой относительный ориентир: переработка меди использует около 15% энергии добычи и переработки первичной меди; абсолютное и маршрутное значение остаётся неизвестным.", "claim_type": "bounded_inference", "system_boundary": "Industry-average relative comparison in IEA report", "numerator": null, "denominator": null, "energy_stage": null, "region": "not separately specified", "period": "report revision 2025-12", "units": "% of primary-route energy", "aggregation_rule": "No aggregation beyond the cited records unless explicitly stated.", "primary_source": { "record_ids": [ "D24" ] }, "extraction_or_calculation": "Synthesis restricted to the boundaries of the cited records.", "falsifier": "PDF page 138 does not support 15%, or a specific route is presented as known without route data.", "alternatives": [ "Specific hydrometallurgical, pyrometallurgical and direct-melt routes may differ.", "Ore grade and energy mix alter the primary comparison." ], "uncertainty": "Relative industry average; no kWh/t or route/geography specificity.", "status": "PASS", "status_scope": "Scientific or model status of this exact synthesis claim.", "evidence": [ "D24", "#recycling-limits", "#ref-D24" ], "site_locations": [ "#recycling-limits", "evidence.html#ref-D24" ] }, { "id": "S07", "exact_claim": "Внутри revised December 2025 отчёта IEA есть расхождение: 2050 available copper scrap равно 27 Mt в подробном разделе и 28 Mt в executive summary; обе записи дают 70% спроса.", "claim_type": "source_conflict", "system_boundary": "Two locations in the same exact PDF", "numerator": null, "denominator": null, "energy_stage": null, "region": "world", "period": "2050 APS", "units": "Mt Cu and % demand", "aggregation_rule": "No aggregation beyond the cited records unless explicitly stated.", "primary_source": { "record_ids": [ "D19" ] }, "extraction_or_calculation": "Synthesis restricted to the boundaries of the cited records.", "falsifier": "The exact PDF locations do not contain the two different mass values.", "alternatives": [ "The difference may result from a revision inconsistency or rounding, but the report does not resolve it." ], "uncertainty": "Unresolved one-million-tonne internal source discrepancy; site uses the detailed section value and discloses the conflict.", "status": "PASS", "status_scope": "Scientific or model status of this exact synthesis claim.", "evidence": [ "D19", "#recycling-limits" ], "site_locations": [ "#recycling-limits" ] }, { "id": "S08", "exact_claim": "Доступный лом до сбора и потерь нельзя считать готовой вторичной поставкой.", "claim_type": "boundary_inference", "system_boundary": "End-of-life scrap flow versus secondary supply", "numerator": null, "denominator": null, "energy_stage": null, "region": "world", "period": "2030–2050 APS", "units": "mass flow", "aggregation_rule": "No aggregation beyond the cited records unless explicitly stated.", "primary_source": { "record_ids": [ "D19", "M10" ] }, "extraction_or_calculation": "Synthesis restricted to the boundaries of the cited records.", "falsifier": "The source defines available scrap as collected, processed secondary output with the same direct-use-scrap boundary.", "alternatives": [ "Higher collection and yield can bring output closer to available scrap.", "Direct-use scrap belongs to a different reported secondary-supply boundary." ], "uncertainty": "Collection, sorting, process yield, capacity, quality and geography remain conditional.", "status": "PASS", "status_scope": "Scientific or model status of this exact synthesis claim.", "evidence": [ "D19", "M10", "#recycling-limits" ], "site_locations": [ "#recycling-limits" ] }, { "id": "S09", "exact_claim": "WPP 2050 — средний вариант прогноза, а не наблюдение; показанный медианный возраст — скалярный показатель WPP, а не возрастное распределение.", "claim_type": "classification_claim", "system_boundary": "UN WPP 2024", "numerator": null, "denominator": null, "energy_stage": null, "region": "world and six UN major regions", "period": "2023 estimate and 2050 projection", "units": "people and years", "aggregation_rule": "No aggregation beyond the cited records unless explicitly stated.", "primary_source": { "record_ids": [ "D14", "D15" ] }, "extraction_or_calculation": "Synthesis restricted to the boundaries of the cited records.", "falsifier": "UN methodology classifies the 2050 medium values as estimates/observations, or the site presents a scalar median-age value as a full distribution.", "alternatives": [ "Other WPP variants and other institutions produce different projections." ], "uncertainty": "Projection uncertainty and within-region heterogeneity remain.", "status": "PASS", "status_scope": "Scientific or model status of this exact synthesis claim.", "evidence": [ "D14", "D15", "#population-access" ], "site_locations": [ "#population-access" ] }, { "id": "S10", "exact_claim": "Региональные агрегаты WPP и World Bank WDI не соединяются построчно, потому что используют разные классификации регионов.", "claim_type": "data_integration_rule", "system_boundary": "Two independent regional taxonomies", "numerator": null, "denominator": null, "energy_stage": null, "region": "UN and World Bank aggregates", "period": "2023/2050 and 2024", "units": "not applicable", "aggregation_rule": "No aggregation beyond the cited records unless explicitly stated.", "primary_source": { "record_ids": [ "M08", "D14", "D16", "D17", "D18" ] }, "extraction_or_calculation": "Synthesis restricted to the boundaries of the cited records.", "falsifier": "The website or data files join values row-wise as though region memberships were identical.", "alternatives": [ "Country-level harmonisation could support a future controlled join." ], "uncertainty": "Current tables remain separate and do not infer country-level distribution.", "status": "PASS", "status_scope": "Scientific or model status of this exact synthesis claim.", "evidence": [ "M08", "D14", "D16", "D17", "D18", "#population-access" ], "site_locations": [ "#population-access" ] }, { "id": "S11", "exact_claim": "Калькулятор физических услуг вычисляет годовое покрытие только для введённого пользователем набора и не является прогнозом достатка, надёжности или состояния цивилизации.", "claim_type": "model_boundary", "system_boundary": "One user-specified territory and service bundle", "numerator": null, "denominator": null, "energy_stage": null, "region": "user specified", "period": "one model year", "units": "GWh/year and percent coverage by included service", "aggregation_rule": "The minimum service-specific coverage determines the annual basket status; no cross-service offsetting.", "primary_source": { "record_ids": [ "M07", "D12", "D13" ] }, "extraction_or_calculation": "User-defined minimum demand is compared with user-entered available final energy by service; EROI is excluded.", "falsifier": "The application inserts empirical defaults, offsets a service shortfall with another service, claims within-year reliability or converts the result into a probability or collapse date.", "alternatives": [ "A calibrated bottom-up demand model could later turn this structure into a forecast.", "Additional services and rebound can change total demand." ], "uncertainty": "No empirical defaults, calibration, full essential-service basket, distribution, hourly adequacy or rebound model.", "status": "PASS", "status_scope": "Scientific or model status of this exact synthesis claim.", "evidence": [ "M07", "D12", "D13", "#service-demand" ], "site_locations": [ "#service-demand" ] }, { "id": "S12", "exact_claim": "Квиз v3 классифицирует введённые условия и не доказывает причинный сценарий будущего.", "claim_type": "model_boundary", "system_boundary": "Deterministic educational rule set", "numerator": null, "denominator": null, "energy_stage": null, "region": "world placeholder requiring regional calibration", "period": "four observations T−3…T", "units": "categorical", "aggregation_rule": "No aggregation beyond the cited records unless explicitly stated.", "primary_source": { "record_ids": [ "M03", "M04" ] }, "extraction_or_calculation": "Synthesis restricted to the boundaries of the cited records.", "falsifier": "The site labels the output as a probability, causal forecast or measured state without validation.", "alternatives": [ "Different rule order or thresholds can produce different categories.", "A calibrated causal model could supersede the quiz." ], "uncertainty": "Rules are project choices with no empirical calibration.", "status": "PASS", "status_scope": "Scientific or model status of this exact synthesis claim.", "evidence": [ "M03", "M04", "#scenarios", "#scenario-rules" ], "site_locations": [ "#scenarios", "#scenario-rules" ] }, { "id": "S13", "exact_claim": "Q плазмы ITER не является балансом всей установки или чистой электрической выдачей; ITER не проектировался как электростанция.", "claim_type": "boundary_inference", "system_boundary": "ITER experimental tokamak", "numerator": null, "denominator": null, "energy_stage": null, "region": "France / international project", "period": "ITER programme", "units": "power ratio and electricity", "aggregation_rule": "No aggregation beyond the cited records unless explicitly stated.", "primary_source": { "record_ids": [ "D07" ] }, "extraction_or_calculation": "Synthesis restricted to the boundaries of the cited records.", "falsifier": "ITER documentation defines Q as facility net electricity or states that ITER is designed to export electricity.", "alternatives": [ "A future fusion power plant must use engineering and net-electric balances." ], "uncertainty": "Future commercial performance is not inferred from ITER Q.", "status": "PASS", "status_scope": "Scientific or model status of this exact synthesis claim.", "evidence": [ "D07", "#fusion-balance", "#identity" ], "site_locations": [ "#fusion-balance", "#identity" ] }, { "id": "S14", "exact_claim": "Положительный годовой энергетический баланс сам по себе не доказывает часовую, пиковую и сезонную надёжность.", "claim_type": "methodological_inference", "system_boundary": "Power-system adequacy and operations", "numerator": null, "denominator": null, "energy_stage": null, "region": "region specific", "period": "hourly to seasonal", "units": "power, energy and reliability metrics", "aggregation_rule": "No aggregation beyond the cited records unless explicitly stated.", "primary_source": { "record_ids": [ "D03", "D05" ] }, "extraction_or_calculation": "Synthesis restricted to the boundaries of the cited records.", "falsifier": "A defined reliability standard is mathematically guaranteed by annual energy alone under all load and network states.", "alternatives": [ "Storage, interconnection, flexible demand and firm generation can address variability, but require explicit data." ], "uncertainty": "No hourly chronological dispatch or network model is present in the site.", "status": "PASS", "status_scope": "Scientific or model status of this exact synthesis claim.", "evidence": [ "D03", "D05", "#reliability-comparison", "#scenario-rules" ], "site_locations": [ "#reliability-comparison", "#scenario-rules" ] }, { "id": "S15", "exact_claim": "Сопоставимый рейтинг EROI технологий на сайте не рассчитан.", "claim_type": "unknown_quantity", "system_boundary": "Full life-cycle electricity-generation boundary would be required", "numerator": null, "denominator": null, "energy_stage": null, "region": "not calculated", "period": "not calculated", "units": "dimensionless ratio", "aggregation_rule": "No aggregation beyond the cited records unless explicitly stated.", "primary_source": { "record_ids": [] }, "extraction_or_calculation": "Synthesis restricted to the boundaries of the cited records.", "falsifier": "A common-boundary dataset and reproducible system aggregation are added for all listed technologies.", "alternatives": [ "Published technology-specific studies use different boundaries and cannot be ranked directly." ], "uncertainty": "Inputs for a common full-life-cycle comparison are absent.", "status": "UNKNOWN", "status_scope": "Scientific or model status of this exact synthesis claim.", "evidence": [ "#technology-comparison" ], "site_locations": [ "#technology-comparison" ] }, { "id": "S16", "exact_claim": "Национальные выводы и кластеризация не используются на сайте, потому что их первичное происхождение и чувствительность ещё не прошли полный аудит.", "claim_type": "scope_exclusion", "system_boundary": "Current I15 build", "numerator": null, "denominator": null, "energy_stage": null, "region": "national data excluded", "period": "current", "units": "not applicable", "aggregation_rule": "No aggregation beyond the cited records unless explicitly stated.", "primary_source": { "record_ids": [] }, "extraction_or_calculation": "Synthesis restricted to the boundaries of the cited records.", "falsifier": "National cells or cluster assignments affect a displayed conclusion or scenario despite missing audit evidence.", "alternatives": [ "A future versioned dataset and sensitivity audit may permit their use." ], "uncertainty": "This is an exclusion rule, not a finding about countries.", "status": "PASS", "status_scope": "Scientific or model status of this exact synthesis claim.", "evidence": [ "#corrections", "#evidence-registry" ], "site_locations": [ "#corrections", "#evidence-registry" ] }, { "id": "C-D25", "exact_claim": "Годовая первичная стадия EROI мирового ископаемого энергомикса", "claim_type": "published_data_or_method", "system_boundary": "мир (WRLD); all fossil fuels; indirect energy included; capital excluded; [1971, 2020]", "numerator": "первичная энергия, произведённая отраслями ископаемого топлива", "denominator": "первичная энергия прямых и косвенных вложений в отрасли ископаемого топлива", "energy_stage": "primary", "region": "мир (WRLD)", "period": [ 1971, 2020 ], "units": "безразмерное отношение", "aggregation_rule": "Широкая CSV-строка развёрнута в 50 годовых ячеек; округление до 0,001 только в HTML; без интерполяции и экстраполяции", "primary_source": { "record_id": "D25", "url": "https://www.nature.com/articles/s41560-024-01518-6", "version": "Nature Energy 2024; Figshare version 1", "locator": "Fig. 2; released dataset file 46240243; row Primary / All fossil fuels / Included", "source_sha256": "12241f109b0e1f540f591fbaec912961ea0b458365a029f7dae5396cfd10340d" }, "extraction_or_calculation": "Exact row selection and wide-to-long transformation; no interpolation or extrapolation.", "falsifier": "The exact source row, source hash or recomputation does not reproduce the 1971–2020 primary-stage values.", "alternatives": [ "Including capital energy would lower the reported upper-bound EROI.", "A final-stage, useful-stage or all-energy boundary gives a different series." ], "uncertainty": "Published model estimate; capital energy excluded; indirect requirements outside 1995–2015 are extrapolated by the authors.", "status": "PASS", "status_scope": "Faithful representation within the stated boundary; not EROI of the entire world energy system.", "evidence": [ "research-registry.json", "#ref-D25" ], "site_locations": [ "#eroi-history", "evidence.html#ref-D25" ] }, { "id": "C-M12", "exact_claim": "Двунаправленная навигация год ↔ EROI действует по медиане выбранного общеэнергетического сценария и рядом показывает диапазон оценки", "claim_type": "model_or_interface_rule", "system_boundary": "world; all-energy system; final energy; selected Slameršak et al. pathway; 2020–2100", "numerator": null, "denominator": null, "energy_stage": "final energy across electricity, gases, liquids and solids", "region": "world", "period": [ 2020, 2100 ], "units": "year and dimensionless ratio", "aggregation_rule": "Author annual median series for forward and inverse navigation; lower and upper series displayed without inversion.", "primary_source": { "record_id": "D28", "url": "https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-022-33976-5", "version": "Nature Communications 13, 6932 (2022)", "locator": "Figure 4c and released workbooks", "source_sha256": "393f1b1f76d636497d80c3d98814c6fb14a074e1c26f1a6f3dec6dd5c6c78922" }, "extraction_or_calculation": "Exact annual table lookup; fractional slider years use linear interpolation; inverse searches the selected median line only.", "falsifier": "A displayed value differs from the author table at an integer year, the range is hidden, or inverse navigation leaves the selected median series.", "alternatives": [ "The lower and upper estimates give different values at the same year.", "Other pathways and regional systems can differ." ], "uncertainty": "All values are scenario-model estimates. The inverse control is navigation, not a date prediction.", "status": "PASS", "status_scope": "Executable interface contract for the displayed trajectories; not validation that a pathway will occur.", "evidence": [ "timeline.html", "timeline.js", "eroi-whole-energy-pathways.json", "D28" ], "site_locations": [ "timeline.html#model", "timeline.html#method", "evidence.html#ref-D28" ] }, { "id": "C-D26", "exact_claim": "The six displayed technology EROI numbers are inputs from one published 2016 dynamic model on a common electricity-output / primary-energy-equivalent-input boundary, not universal current values.", "claim_type": "published_data_or_method", "system_boundary": "technology-level electricity generation; published Table 1 boundary", "numerator": "electricity output", "denominator": "primary-energy-equivalent invested", "energy_stage": "electricity output / primary-equivalent input", "region": "generic technology cases", "period": "published 2016; no time series", "units": "TJ_e/TJ_pte", "aggregation_rule": "No averaging or mixing with other EROI series", "primary_source": { "record_id": "D26", "url": "https://doi.org/10.3390/su8050421", "version": "Sustainability 8(5), 421 (2016)", "locator": "Table 1", "source_sha256": null }, "extraction_or_calculation": "Direct transcription of coal 13, gas 3, hydro 38, nuclear 25, solar 4, wind 19", "falsifier": "Table 1 does not contain these six values or the site presents them as universal current measurements", "alternatives": [ "Different regions, lifetimes, load factors, storage or system boundaries produce different EROI values." ], "uncertainty": "Published model inputs; technology and regional variation is large.", "status": "PASS", "status_scope": "Faithful bounded representation, not validation of the values for a new project.", "evidence": [ "research-registry.json", "#ref-D26" ], "site_locations": [ "#technology-comparison", "evidence.html#ref-D26" ] }, { "id": "C-D27", "exact_claim": "UNECE 2021 reports the displayed full-life-cycle GHG ranges for coal, gas, PV, wind, hydro and nuclear electricity options.", "claim_type": "published_data_or_method", "system_boundary": "full life-cycle electricity generation cases in UNECE 2021", "numerator": "life-cycle greenhouse-gas emissions", "denominator": "electricity generated", "energy_stage": "electricity output", "region": "UNECE technology and regional cases", "period": "report published 2021", "units": "g CO2-eq/kWh", "aggregation_rule": "Onshore/offshore wind combined only for the summary range; no multi-impact score", "primary_source": { "record_id": "D27", "url": "https://unece.org/sites/default/files/2021-09/202109_UNECE_LCA_1.2_clean.pdf", "version": "September 2021", "locator": "Section 5.1 Discussion", "source_sha256": null }, "extraction_or_calculation": "Direct transcription of report ranges with explicit hydropower caveat", "falsifier": "The cited section does not report the ranges or the site omits a stated caveat", "alternatives": [ "Other inventories, regions and lifetimes yield other ranges." ], "uncertainty": "Hydropower is site-specific; reservoir biogenic emissions are mostly excluded in the cited assessment.", "status": "PASS", "status_scope": "Faithful report summary; no universal environmental winner.", "evidence": [ "research-registry.json", "#ref-D27" ], "site_locations": [ "#environment-comparison", "evidence.html#ref-D27" ] }, { "id": "C-M13", "exact_claim": "The displayed service-efficiency index is dimensionless only within one physical service and one boundary; rebound, activity and structure are reported separately.", "claim_type": "model_or_interface_rule", "system_boundary": "one service, one baseline and one comparison period", "numerator": "normalized physical service", "denominator": "normalized final energy", "energy_stage": "final energy assigned to that service", "region": "user-selected case", "period": "user-selected baseline and comparison", "units": "dimensionless index; service and energy retain original units", "aggregation_rule": "I_eff=(S/S0)/(E/E0); no summing unlike services", "primary_source": { "record_id": "M13", "url": null, "version": "NP176-I21-local", "locator": "index.html#efficiency-index", "source_sha256": null }, "extraction_or_calculation": "Worked example 100/20 to 120/18; no-rebound energy 15; same-activity baseline 24; rebound=(18-15)/(24-15)=33%", "falsifier": "The formula is dimensionful, combines unlike services or labels the teaching rebound as empirical", "alternatives": [ "Other rebound definitions exist and must be labelled before use." ], "uncertainty": "Teaching decomposition only; no empirical calibration.", "status": "PASS", "status_scope": "Internal arithmetic and boundary rule.", "evidence": [ "#efficiency-index", "research-registry.json" ], "site_locations": [ "#efficiency-index", "evidence.html#ref-M13" ] }, { "id": "C-M14", "exact_claim": "Physical energy, EROI, monetary prices/investments and causal econometric effects remain separate quantities on the site.", "claim_type": "scope_exclusion", "system_boundary": "all site modules", "numerator": null, "denominator": null, "energy_stage": null, "region": "all", "period": "current build", "units": "physical, dimensionless, monetary and econometric units kept separate", "aggregation_rule": "No conversion between currency and EROI; no causal estimate without an identified model", "primary_source": { "record_id": "M14", "url": null, "version": "NP176-I21-local", "locator": "index.html#physical-money", "source_sha256": null }, "extraction_or_calculation": "Separation table and explicit exclusion of a causal econometric model", "falsifier": "A price is converted to EROI, EROI is used as a direct price forecast, or a causal coefficient is claimed without identification", "alternatives": [ "A future econometric study may estimate a bounded relationship with explicit data and assumptions." ], "uncertainty": "Economic mechanisms remain hypotheses until separately tested.", "status": "PASS", "status_scope": "Current site scope and labelling rule.", "evidence": [ "#physical-money", "research-registry.json" ], "site_locations": [ "#physical-money", "evidence.html#ref-M14" ] }, { "id": "C-D28", "exact_claim": "Сценарный EROI всей мировой энергосистемы в четырёх иллюстративных путях", "claim_type": "published_data_or_method", "system_boundary": "world; total final energy across electricity, gases, liquids and solids; energy-system requirements from extraction to point of use", "numerator": "total final energy delivered to the point of use across electricity, gases, liquid fuels and solids", "denominator": "energy used by the energy system from extraction through processing, conversion and delivery, including construction, operation, maintenance and decommissioning", "energy_stage": "final energy", "region": "world", "period": [ 2020, 2100 ], "units": "dimensionless ratio", "aggregation_rule": "Authors' overall-system aggregation across 27 conversion technologies and four carriers.", "primary_source": { "record_id": "D28", "url": "https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-022-33976-5", "version": "Nature Communications 13, 6932 (2022)", "locator": "Figure 4c; released workbooks", "source_sha256": "393f1b1f76d636497d80c3d98814c6fb14a074e1c26f1a6f3dec6dd5c6c78922" }, "extraction_or_calculation": "Author-supplied annual values copied without extrapolation; site display rounds to 0.1.", "falsifier": "The released workbook cells do not reproduce the displayed integer-year median/lower/upper values.", "alternatives": [ "Other 1.5°C-compatible pathways not displayed can differ.", "An observed historical whole-energy series would answer a different question." ], "uncertainty": "Scenario output, not observed history, probability or unconditional forecast.", "status": "PASS", "status_scope": "Faithful transcription and boundary representation only.", "evidence": [ "D28", "eroi-whole-energy-pathways.json", "forecast-model-card.json" ], "site_locations": [ "index.html", "timeline.html#model", "system.html#scenario", "evidence.html#ref-D28" ] } ] }